Ark Analysis: China's Critical Mineral Crackdown

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Supply Chain

Situation

On Dec. 3, 2024, the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced sweeping regulations to curb the export of materials to the United States that have potential military applications. Notably, the crackdown will stop or slow the export of several critical minerals to the U.S., including antimony, gallium, and germanium—all of which are used for the development of modern technology.

Insights

Antimony, gallium, and germanium are critical for the creation of a range of both military and civilian products, including bullets, cables, infrared technology, EV batteries, and more. More than 20,000 individual parts used by DoD (plus the U.S. Coast Guard) are impacted by the regulations, affecting more than 1,000 weapons systems across all branches of the military.

DoD Parts Requiring:

    Antimony: 6,335

    Gallium: 11,351

    Germanium: 12,777

Weapons Systems Impacted:

    Navy: 501

    Army: 267

    Air Force: 193

    Marines: 113

   Coast Guard: 1

There are 12,486 supply chains that support the production of the 1,000+ weapons systems made with antimony, gallium, and/or germanium. 87% of those supply chains (10,829) rely on a Chinese supplier at some point.

Analysis

Analysis in Ark surfaced the vital weapons systems that are most dependent on the impacted critical minerals, including Navy Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, America Class amphibious assault ships, Nimitz Class aircraft carriers, and the nuclear missile program.

Despite known U.S. stockpiles, ensuring readiness and sustainment for the systems that depend on these minerals on a protracted basis will require precision.

It is imperative that DoD have the ability to map supply and anticipate demand as it relates to specific weapons systems in order to effectively mitigate the risk caused by the critical minerals export controls.

To learn more about this analysis, contact Govini.

Situation

On Dec. 3, 2024, the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced sweeping regulations to curb the export of materials to the United States that have potential military applications. Notably, the crackdown will stop or slow the export of several critical minerals to the U.S., including antimony, gallium, and germanium—all of which are used for the development of modern technology.

Insights

Antimony, gallium, and germanium are critical for the creation of a range of both military and civilian products, including bullets, cables, infrared technology, EV batteries, and more. More than 20,000 individual parts used by DoD (plus the U.S. Coast Guard) are impacted by the regulations, affecting more than 1,000 weapons systems across all branches of the military.

DoD Parts Requiring:

    Antimony: 6,335

    Gallium: 11,351

    Germanium: 12,777

Weapons Systems Impacted:

    Navy: 501

    Army: 267

    Air Force: 193

    Marines: 113

   Coast Guard: 1

There are 12,486 supply chains that support the production of the 1,000+ weapons systems made with antimony, gallium, and/or germanium. 87% of those supply chains (10,829) rely on a Chinese supplier at some point.

Analysis

Analysis in Ark surfaced the vital weapons systems that are most dependent on the impacted critical minerals, including Navy Arleigh Burke Class destroyers, America Class amphibious assault ships, Nimitz Class aircraft carriers, and the nuclear missile program.

Despite known U.S. stockpiles, ensuring readiness and sustainment for the systems that depend on these minerals on a protracted basis will require precision.

It is imperative that DoD have the ability to map supply and anticipate demand as it relates to specific weapons systems in order to effectively mitigate the risk caused by the critical minerals export controls.

To learn more about this analysis, contact Govini.